Maximum Security Odds: 2019 Kentucky Derby Contenders Series

Trainer Jason Servis won at the Gulfstream Park championship meeting at a 45% clip. He has visited the winner’s circle with 35 of his 77 starters. Four of those wins came with Maximum Security, the undefeated colt who is now the fourth choice on the early Kentucky Derby odds at +1000. Here’s a look at the Maximum Security odds for the Run for the Roses.

In his last outing, the colt took the field gate to wire to win the Florida Derby (G1). It was also his stakes debut.

What is amazing about this colt is that he made his debut for a $16,000 claiming tag, rolling to a nine and three-quarters length winner. With his modest pedigree, by New Year’s Day out of an Anasheed mare, his owner Gary West and Servis were not expecting much out of the colt.

The colt did not show much in the mornings. Servis got away running him for a $16,000 price tag in his debut. Luckily, he did not have any takers.

After the maiden win, he won a starter optional claimer by 6.5 lengths. In his third start won another with his Beyer Speed Figure going from an 83 to a 102.

The colt got an easy lead in the Florida Derby. He wound up winning by 3.5 lengths with his Beyer Speed Figure a 101. The colt is the only Derby contender for two triple digit Beyers.

Maximum Security Odds Dropped After Florida Win

After his win in the Florida Derby, his early Kentucky Derby odds dropped to +1200. Those Maximum Security odds have gone down farther to +1000.

The only Derby contenders with lower odds are the Bob Baffert trio of Roadster (+500), Game Winner (+700) and Improbable (+700).

The Florida Derby is a key prep race, producing 24 Kentucky Derby winners. The most recent was Always Dreaming in 2017. Other record Kentucky Derby winners that used the Florida Derby as a prep include Nyquist (2016), Orb (2013), Big Brown (2008) and Barbaro (2006).

If Maximum Security wins the Run for the Roses, he would not be the first to have run previously for a claiming tag.

Mine That Bird broke his maiden at Woodbine for a $62,500 tag. He also pulled off the upset in the 2009 Kentucky Derby at 50-1. Charismatic broke his maiden at Hollywood Park for $62,500 as a juvenile. The following spring, he won the Kentucky Derby at odds of 31-1.

Now we have Maximum Security, running for just $16,000 in his debut. He has won his four career races by a combined 38 lengths as one of the major Kentucky Derby contenders.

This would be quite a Cinderella story. It would be one that might keep other trainers up late at night asking themselves why they did not put in a claim slip on Maximum Security for what now looks like a bargain of a lifetime at $16,000.

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