Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is sending out a trio of runners in the Kentucky Derby (G1) this year. Among them, Improbable is going to have the highest price. Here’s a look at the Improbable odds for the Run for the Roses.
The colt was the co-favorite on the Kentucky Derby odds, along with his stablemate Game Winner at +800 on March 18. This was two days after being beaten by a neck in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park in his three-year-old debut.
The loss was his first after a perfect juvenile campaign. After breaking his maiden by a neck, he won his stakes debut in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs by seven and a quarter lengths.
He missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and landed in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). There, he drew off to win by five lengths in a sharp looking effort.
After his loss in the Rebel, the colt shipped back to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (G1). He was sent off at 9-5, but again came up short, beaten a length by Omaha Beach. However, he was nearly six lengths clear of the rest of the field.
While his stablemate Game Winner also lost his two starts this year, a second in the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby, Baffert’s other runner Roadster picked up a win in the Santa Anita Derby.
Improbable Odds: Trailing Game Winner and Roadster
Now, Game Winner and Roadster are the co-favorites on the Kentucky Derby odds at +500. Meanwhile, the Improbable odds have drifted up to +700. He is the fourth choice in the early wagering (Omaha Beach is third at +550).
Baffert is seeking to become just the second trainer in history to saddle six winners. Ben Jones has won a record six, his first in 1938 with Lawrin. His last came in 1952 with Hill Gail.
Baffert’s Derby winners were Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018).
His last two winners went on to win the Triple Crown. However, Real Quiet was nipped at the wire by Victory Gallop in his bid to sweep the three classic races.
Coming into this year’s Derby, it is tough to separate the trio of Baffert runners.
Game Winner was the juvenile champion, undefeated last year. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to wrap up year end honors.
Roadster showed plenty of promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden in his debut. Then, he ran third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He missed some time with throat surgery and is coming into this year’s Run for the Roses looking like a runner that still has a ton of upside.
Now Improbable, who once looked as if he could go off as the Kentucky Derby betting favorite, is being slightly overshadowed by his barn mates. He could end up offering the best wagering value among the Baffert contenders.