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Longshots With a Chance to Upset in Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby is one of best wagering races of the year, with a field of 20 three-year-olds trying to go 1 ¼ miles for the first time in their careers.

While the betting favorite has won in each of the last three years, we have seen two of the three biggest upsets in the history of the race since 2005, with Giacomo and Mine That Bird each paying over $100 to win.

While Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen are getting most of the betting action, here are three longshots that are worth a good look on the first Saturday of May:

Creator 20-1

The Steve Asmussen trained Creator took six tries just to break his maiden, but then ran well in two preps at Oaklawn Park. He was third in the Rebel (G2) and then rallied from the back of the pack to pull off the upset in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his final prep, returning $25.20 to win.

The colt is currently at early betting odds of 20-1. Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah exited the Arkansas Derby. The 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver also used the Arkansas Derby as his final prep.

Mo Tom 16-1

If it was not for a couple of troubled trips in his last two starts at Fair Grounds, this colt could be one of the early favorites for the Run for the Roses.

The colt won the Lecomte (G2) and then was third in the Risen Star (G2) where the colt had to check sharply nearing the three-sixteenths mark when a foe veered in on him.

It was on to the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he was sent off as the betting favorite but again found trouble in the same spot, and finished up with some late run when clear, but the damage was done.

It looked as if trainer Tom Amoss would replace jockey Corey Lanerie after two bad trips, but the trainer is sticking with him. A clean trip and this colt could be looking at a career best effort.

Gun Runner 10-1

Gun Runner finished on top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings, but has been flying under the radar most of the spring.

The Asmussen trainee will be coming into the race off a six-week break, winning the Louisiana Derby in his last outing, his fourth win in five career starts.

His lone loss was a fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November at Churchill Downs in the slop, which has turned out to be a tough race. Mor Spirit came out of the race to win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) in his next start while Mo Tom won the Lecomte in his next outing.

It’s tough to win the Run for the Roses off a six-week break, but the colt has a long-winded pedigree, a trainer that will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this year, and may end up a generous price.

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