Exaggerator ended Nyquist’s Triple Crown bid with an impressive victory in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and now heads to New York as the heavy favorite for the Belmont Stakes (G1), but the colt certainly is no lock to win.
The colt is currently the 11-10 betting favorite for the third jewel of the Triple Crown, coming up on Saturday, June 11.
However, as we have seen in recent years, the betting favorite for the Belmont Stakes has had trouble finding the winner’s circle.
Last year, American Pharoah became the first betting favorite to win the Belmont Stakes since Afleet Alex in 2005.
Among the top horses that failed as the favorite over the last decade are California Chrome in 2014, Big Brown in 2008 and Curlin in 2007.
In fact, since 1999, 10 Belmont Stakes winners were sent off at odds of 12-1 or higher including Sarava at 70-1 in 2002, Birdstone at 36-1 in 2004, Da’ Tara at 38-1 in 2008 and Ruler On Ice at 24-1 in 2011.
While Exaggerator has put together a great campaign, he will be making his third start in just five weeks, while several others in the field are coming in fresh.
Suddenbreakingnews, Destin, Brody’s Cause, Mo Tom and Creator finished behind Exaggerator in the Kentucky Derby, but skipped the Preakness and will come into the Belmont Stakes with a five week break.
The current second choice in early Belmont Stakes betting is Suddenbreakingnews, who was fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, the colt has won one of his four starts this year, taking the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park in February.
The Todd Pletcher trained Destin is at 9-1, and he checked in sixth in the Kentucky Derby. That was his first start since winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 12, and the colt just may not have been fit enough to go 1 ¼ miles off nearly a two-month break.
Pletcher has a poor record in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but has managed to win the Belmont Stakes twice, with Palace Malice in 2013 and the filly Rags to Riches in 2007.
Pletcher will also saddle Stradivari, who was fourth in the Preakness Stakes in his stakes debut and just his fourth career outing.
The colt still appears to have plenty of upside and should be more seasoned now with a stakes start under his belt. His current early betting odds for the Belmont are 9-1.
The Belmont Stakes is unique as none in the field have ever travelled 1 ½ miles, and likely never will again.
It’s not exactly a good spot to play the chalk.