Horses With Chance of Ending American Pharoah’s Triple Crown Bid

American Pharoah goes for history on Saturday as the 10-13 betting favorite for the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes. A victory would make the colt the 12th Triple Crown winner and the first in nearly four decades.

We have been here before, with California Chrome having his Triple Crown bid end with a fourth place finish as the betting favorite last year.

In fact, since the last Triple Crown, 13 horses have arrived in New York seeking history and they all left empty. We saw Smarty Jones get run down in the stretch in 2004 at betting odds of 2-5 and Big Brown get eased in the 2008 Belmont at odds of 1-5.

Is there an upset candidate this year among the seven foes that will take on American Pharoah?

Here are three horses that may end up offering a bit more value on Saturday:

Keen Ice (25-1): This colt is one of five in the race that was beaten by American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. Six of the last 12 Belmont Stakes winners ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. This colt was seventh and beaten 8 ¾ lengths in the Run for the Roses.

In addition to coming in with a five-week break, this colt does have a long-winded pedigree and should relish the 1 ½ mile distance. He is by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin and out of an Awesome Again mare. He is worth a look at generous odds.

Frosted (11-2): Likely to be sent off as the second betting choice, this colt also returns with a five-week break. The colt was the only runner in the 18-horse Derby field that was making up any significant ground in the stretch. In his previous start, he was a smart winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

His trainer pulled off a mild upset with Jazil in the 2006 Belmont and is considered one of the best trainers in New York. The colt should get a good tracking trip and if he can handle the extra ground will be in the mix late.

Materiality (13-2): This colt ran sixth in the Kentucky Derby and it was a pretty good effort. He was off a beat slow and ran into some traffic troubles, picking it up late to finish 7 ¾ lengths behind the winner.

He ran in the Derby off just three career starts and did not make his career debut until January. His win in the Florida Derby was one of the most impressive Derby preps all spring. His trainer has won two Belmonts, with Rags to Riches in 2007 and Palace Malice in 2013, and has had four others run second.

The colt has as much upside as any in the field and his sire Afleet Alex won the 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, making his 13-2 odds look like decent value compared to the favorite’s 10-13 odds.

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