Horses coming in from overseas have a miserable record in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but the two coming over this year are getting plenty of attention, although for far different reasons.
Mendelssohn ran huge winning the UAE Derby (G2) and has already made a start in the U.S. and appears to be a contender on talent. The colt is now the co-favorite in early 2018 Kentucky Derby betting with Justify at 4-1.
Gronkowski is getting much of his attention because his namesake is Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots, who recently bought an interest in the colt. Currently at 33-1 in early Kentucky Derby betting, he is expected to take more action that his talent deserves as the public may latch onto the colt as a sentimental favorite.
Mendelssohn and Gronkowski both made their final preps overseas, and we have to go back to 1971 to Canonero II to find the last Derby winner to have raced outside of the U.S. in their final prep, the colt coming in from Venezuela.
Horses that last raced in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai own an 0 for 13 record in the Kentucky Derby, the best finish a fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011. Last year’s UAE Derby winner was Thunder Snow, who was rank and nearly dumped the jockey at the start at Churchill Downs last spring and did not finish.
Mendelssohn has made a trip to the U.S., winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last fall at Del Mar. After making his first five career starts on turf, he then won the Patton Stakes on the all-weather at Dundalk. His UAE Derby victory was his first on conventional dirt.
His pedigree suggests dirt is very suitable. The $3 million Keeneland purchase is a half to the great Beholder, winner of the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and the 2013 and 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).
His connections are top notch. Aiden O’Brien is considered one of the top trainers in the world and Ryan Moore is coming over to ride the colt and is one of the top jockeys in the sport.
Gronkowski has won four of his six career starts but does not have the credentials or the talent that Mendelssohn does.
He earned his way into the Run for the Roses by winning the Road to the Kentucky Debry Condition Stakes at Kempton and the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle, both races over an all-weather surface.
The $75,000 Keeneland purchase is out the mare Four Sugars, who was sired by Lookin At Lucky, who was a very unlucky sixth in the 2010 Kentucky Derby after drawing the rail post and came back to win the Preakness Stakes (G1).
With the mainstream media picking up on his name and the fact the Rob Gronkowski is now part owner, the colt likely gets far too much attention at the betting windows. The same thing happened last year with Patch, the one-eyed colt who was featured on major news outlets and ended up going off at an underlaid price of 14-1 and checked in 14th.
The colt probably should go off at odds of 40-1 or 50-1 on Derby Day, but Patriots fans seem likely to make Gronkowski this year’s Patch.